In 1977, Bill James sparked a revolution in baseball thinking that
challenged what people have always believed about the game. He started
to gain a cult following from readers of his annual baseball abstracts,
to the point where his work has effected the way every single team in
baseball is run today. In the process, it has sparked a major debate
between old school and new school that has been a central point in many
baseball discussions, coming to a major head in the Mike Trout/ Miguel
Cabrera debate.
I know I've already mentioned this in my previous
post, but baseball writers are idiots. Not because they voted for
Cabrera, as he was equally deserving as Trout. Neither one winning a
travesty, a joke, or even wrong. It was their reasoning, which is
rooted in the troglodyte old school thinking that was a complete joke
and shows their stupidity.
However, after reading the complaints
about Trout not getting MVP, it is clear many of the people who rely on
Sabermetrics aren't any smarter than those who rely on antiquated and
misleading stats such as batting average, RBIs, wins, etc.
There
has been a long misconception about the true purpose of sabermetrics on
both sides of the debate. Statistics have been deeply rooted into the
game of baseball since it's inception. What Bill James (and the many
that have come after him) did was simply figure out which statistics are
most reliable, and how to compile various data into new statistics that
are useful to evaluate players.
The problem is, there are people
within the sabermetric community that simply don't have the mental
capacity to take all things, statistical or otherwise, into
consideration, and rely on what they perceive to be a be-all/ end-all
statistic and something that can end all arguments. At the moment, that
statistic is wins above replacement, or WAR.
The original
statistic was total player rating (TPR) back in the 1980's, in which
each event by a hitter, baserunner, or fielder was assigned a value
based on the probability of how often whatever happened led to a run, or
decreased the chance of a run. However, TPR was so heavily flawed the
Bill James came along with equivalent average (EqA) in the mid 90's, a
stat that combined walks, steals, total bases, sacrifices into a
percentage stat in which the league average was the same as batting
average. As sabermetrics became more mainstream in the late 90's/ early
2000's, it was simplified for those new to it and combine the two most
valuable traditional statistics (OBP and SLG) into one statistic, on
base plus slugging (OPS), which later lost favor to advanced OPS (OPS+),
taking into account ballpark factors and league averages. Since OPS
and OPS+ are more or less an arbitrary statistics since OPS is based
upon simply adding two separate statistics together, they went again
looking for something less arbitrary and came up with runs created per
27 outs (RC27) which uses the same stats as EqA but converts it into a
number similar to ERA so that hitters and pitchers could be more
compared.
When the trend became looking for value, win shares, in
which every team is allocated a certain amount of points (three for
every win) to their players, became the most popular statistic. As that
was too heavily reliant on team performance, they turned to value over
replacement player (VORP) which was the number of runs added to the team
compared to some scrub that can easily be found via free agency or the
minor leagues. VORP eventually gave way to wins above replacement
(WAR), which is where we are now.
WAR, and many other sabermetric
statistics, are inherently flawed mainly because it attempts to
statistically evaluate things that you can't put into numbers and can
only evaluate subjectively. Among them:
*Accurately determine
how many games a player won for their team. There are way too many
intangibles to evaluate that.
*Combining offense, defense, and
pitching numbers into the same statistic. These are completely
different aspects of the game that cannot be quantified within the same
stat. You might as well create a WAR formula for basketball so you can
compare Lebron James to Trout or Cabrera.
*Statistically altering a
players offensive value compared to others in their position.
Obviously, a middle infielder's bat is more valuable than a first
baseman with similar numbers, but again, there's no true way of knowing
*Even
though it's not part of WAR, ballpark factors are taken into account
for other notable formuals (such as OPS+ and ERA+). For starters, every
ballpark affects every ballplayer differently. Secondly, the ballpark
factors can randomly fluctuate from year to year, so it's not uncommon
for a hitter to have a better year than the year before but do worse in
stats that take into account ballpark because the other hitters on his
team did better at home while the pitchers did better on the road than
the previous year. Third, even if every ballpark affected every player
the same, and the numbers didn't fluctuate, there is still no way to
accurately calculate how much better someone Buster Posey would have
done outside of AT&T Park.
According to WAR, Robinson Cano was
better than Miguel Cabrera this year. Considering both players had the
same exact number of games plate and plate appearances, it's pretty
easy to compare them. Cabrera beat Cano pretty easily in nearly every
category, except for having just two more strikeouts, eight fewer
doubles (although Cabrera had 11 more homers). Yet, because Cano was a
second baseman, he had a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) by nearly a full
point, and a better overall WAR by over a point. And Mike Trout may
have been the better player from May through July, but you can't tell me
that he came close to Cabrera the last two months of the year,
especially in September. Yet, WAR will try to tell you. Any stat that
has Mike Trout's mediocre September being better (1.8 WAR) than Miguel
Cabrera's (1.5 WAR) cannot be taken seriously.
And if going by
WAR, do you know whose had the highest among position players in the
American League since 2009, leading the league twice? Ben Zobrist. Not
Miguel Cabrera. Not Robinson Cano. Not Josh Hamilton. Ben Zobrist.
This offensive line sure looks like a superstar to me.
And
don't even get me started on wins probably added (WPA). WPA, which has
been around in various incarnations since long before Bill James came
long, but has received more and more attention lately in wins
probability added (WPA), calculates the difference between the team's
likelihood of winning before and after each of the player's at bat. All
I have to say is this: if a player hits a home run in a game, and his
team wins by one run, it doesn't matter what the score was, what inning,
or how many outs there were at the time. At the end of the game, that
home run ultimately counted the same and won the team the game.
Trying to say that Trout was a better hitter than Cabrera, citing oWAR and WPA as the reasons why, is equally as dumb as saying Cabrera deserved MVP because he won three arbitrary statistics or that the Tigers made the playoffs with one less win than the Angels.
Overall,
the debate has pretty much devolved into two groups of idiots. On one
hand, you have the old school people who are two stubborn to admit that
what they've been taught and grown up believing is wrong. They still
rely on batting average, which basically means they believe that a
single, double, triple, and home run are all worth the same and walks
don't mean anything. They rely on stats like runs, RBIs, and win-loss
record, which are heavily reliant on how their team performs. They
ignore factors that show whether or not a pitcher is as good as their
ERA indicated.
Then you have those that embrace the newer stats,
but lack the mental ability to look at a player's entire stat line and
form their own conclusions, so they have to rely on a formula they
probably don't even understand and use it as the definitive stat as if
it's the ultimate answer to end all arguments, be it TPR, eQA, OPS, win
shares, OPS+/ ERA+, RC27, VORP, or WAR. You can't even debate with
these people, as they are convinced that everything they think is fact
since WAR (or whatever else they use) say so.
All these newer
stats are good for baseball, as long as you know how to utilize them.
There will never be a definitive formula, no matter how hard people try
to come up with one. Instead of trying to combine them all into one
formula, look at everything individually. Look at all the numbers on
the stat line, and yes, include everything from the antiquated statistics to the pointlessly convoluted formulas. Take into account intangibles that cannot be
statistically evaluated, be it park factors, how they compare to others
in their position, etc. Then come up with your own conclusion. That's what Bill James has always done with his evaluations and predictions.
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