Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Hall of Fame Ballot: The returnees

With the Hot Stove burning slowly, much of the attention has shifted to the Hall of Fame discussion.  What possibly could have been one of the greatest Hall of Fame classes has shifted to a controversial one, in which many players who have used or been implicated as having used are eligible.  Over the next month or so, this debate will heat up.
Since I have a lot to say on the subject, I will break this down into two parts: The returnees and the first year eligibles.  On this one, I will give my thoughts on each of the returning players on the ballot.
Obviously I don't have a vote (even though there are a lot of people that do get to vote that are clearly less qualified than I am, but that's how it goes):, but this is what I would do if I have a ballot, in order of how many votes they received in 2012:

Jack Morris:  It seems likely that he will get in this year.  The record for highest percentage of anyone that didn't get the eventual 75% percent needed to get in in future years was Gil Hodges 63.4% in his final year on the ballot in 1983.  Morris received 66.6% last year, and has this year and next year to get in.
Does he deserve it?  Not really.  He was a good pitcher, but not great pitcher.  His career best in ERA was 3.05, and his lifetime ERA was slightly below 4.00, never finishing in the top ten in the Major Leagues.  His lifetime record of 254-186 averages out to about 14-10 over 18 seasons.  Good, but not great.  Morris did manage to make the All Star team four times, but for most of his career was nothing more than an average pitcher.  His 104 ERA+ is slightly above average. 
His supporters cite his five championships and post-season performances as the reason as to why he should make the Hall of Fame, but 18 seasons in which he was a little above average outweigh a few post-season gems.
And in reality, he wasn't as great a post-season pitcher as he was made out to be.  Yes, he was 3-0 in the Tigers 1984 run, and pitched the classic 10 inning complete game shutout in game seven of the 1991 World Series.  But look outside of that.  His lifetime post-season record was 7-4.   That's good, but not enough to be considered one of the greatest post-season pitchers of all time.  He got rocked in game 2 of the 1987 ALCS and didn't get to pitch in the World Series.  In 1992, he pitched horrible in all four starts, going 0-3 with a 7.43 ERA in 23 innings and the team won despite him.  In 1993, "Mr. Clutch" was left off the post-season roster entirely.  So all in all, he had two really good post-seasons, and two horrible ones.  Doesn't sound like a Hall of Famer to me.  If that makes someone a Hall of Famer, does that make Josh Beckett one? 
Definite no to Morris.

Lee Smith: Having retired as the all time saves leader, Smith lost a lot momentum on the path to Cooperstown after the saves record was broken twice, once by Trevor Hoffman, and again by Mariano Rivera.   However, many feel his 478 career saves are sufficient enough for him to make the Hall of Fame.
Considering the scarcity of relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame, for one to make it to the Hall of Fame, he should have had to pitch at an elite level for an extended period of time.  Hoyt Wilhelm was ahead of his time, being the first dominating reliever, and one of the first have his role not because he couldn't make the rotation, but because he was so valuable in the bullpen.  In addition to many outstanding years in the bullpen, he also served as a stellar starting pitcher for several seasons.  Roller Fingers became the first reliever to win an MVP, after already having been far and away the best fireman in baseball for over a decade.  Dennis Eckersley revolutionized the position, and retired as the greatest ever in that role.  Goose Gossage was somewhat iffy, but was a dominating for over a decade, and after Bruce Sutter got inducted two years prior despite arriving to the big leagues later, retiring earlier, spending a much shorter time as an elite reliever, and being less effective than their respective primes, Gossage had to get in.  Sutter was the one that really wasn't deserving, but letting one guy lower the bar for everyone using the logic "if player x is in the hall, so should player y" set's a dangerous precent and slippery slope that eventually devalues the hall altogehter.
Smith was never an elite closer.  He was just good.  He was consistent and had a lot of longevity, which enabled him to get the saves record, but consistency and longevity alone is not enough for Hall of Fame worthiness.
Perhaps if the saves statistic wasn't essentially worthless, perhaps holding the record at one point would make him a hall of famer.  But it is, so he's not.  Plus, what if John Franco broke the record?  In the middle of the 1999 season, Franco was just 62 saves away from the saves record.  But the Mets wanted to promote the up and coming "stud" Armando Benitez to the closer role (it seems laughable now, but at the time everyone thought he was going to be one of the greatest closers ever).  Franco was still an effective closer, and could have very easily demanded a trade, or bolted elsewhere when he became a free agent in the off-season.  But he didn't, he chose to stay with the Mets, and only got eight more saves in his career.  Had he left, he likely would have easily broken Smith's saves record long before Smith was eligible for the Hall of Fame.  Smith likely would have been off the ballot in a year or two, and people would be clammoring for Franco to get inducted into the hall instead.
The day someone gets inducted in the Hall of Fame based on saves alone is the day it should be closed down.  So Smith is definitely not a Hall of Famer.

Jeff Bagwell: The first of likely many victims of the "steroid era" in Hall of Fame voting.  Even though he will eventually get in, the baseball writers will make him wait because he was a power hitter during the steroid era, even though he was never actually implicated.
At face value, Bagwell is definitely a Hall of Famer.  From 1993-2002, he was consistently one of baseball's best hitters, and that was while playing most of that time in the Astrodome, one of the toughest ballparks in baseball for hitters.
That being said, and this may become a recurring theme, but the era he played in cannot be ignored.  You can't assume that Bagwell is innocent now that we know there was a wide scope of the players that have been used and there are likely many more that haven't been caught or implicated than there are that have.  So if you're going to excommunicate any known or suspected steroid user from the Hall of Fame, you have to leave out the whole era.  Otherwise, you are basically sending the message that it was ok to use as long as you haven't gotten busted, and leaves open the possibility of someone being outed as a user after being inducted.
That being said, the era was what it was, and steroids were such a widespread aspect of the game that weren't even against the rules, and even accepted within baseball's inner circles, both in the front offices and the clubhouses, until the public become more aware of it, the accomplishments of any player from that era need to taken at face value.  Therefore, Bagwell belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Tim Raines: He certainly wasn't on the level of Rickey Henderson, but he was still one of the greatest leadoff hitters ever.  Someone who has a lifetime batting average of .300 over a 23 year career is pretty much a lock for the Hall of Fame.  Raines may have fallen just short of that (.294), but he was a leadoff hitter, and a leadoff hitter's primary job is to get on base.  The OBP equivalent to a .300 batting average is .375 (approximately the number of players who get that is about the same as the number of .300 hitters during a typical year).  Raines had a .384 OBP, in over 10,000 plate appearances.  Only 22 players have a higher OBP in that many plate appearances.  Six of them are active or not yet Hall of Fame eligible.  The other 16?  All Hall of Famers. 
If you're one of those old school people who still think a leadoff hitter's job is to steal bases, well, Raines had 808 of those, making him fifth all time, fourth since 1901.
There's no doubt  Rains belongs in the hall.

Alan Trammell: When he was first eligible, I probably would have supported him in the Hall just on the basis that he was eligible for the first time the same year as fellow shortstop Ozzie Smith, who was a shoo-in to get inducted based solely on his tremendous offensive prowess.  While he wasn't the defender Ozzie was (although he wasn't no slouch himself), his offensive superiority more than made up for it.  However, it has been over a decade since then so Ozzie's induction has become irrelevant to Trammell's candidacy.
You can pretty much sum everything up the same way as most of the remaining players I'm about to mention: He was a pretty damn good player, but there is nothing about him, be it his stats, accomplishments, career body of work, or "intagibles" that make him a Hall of Famer.

Edgar Martinez: In the past, I have always believed that anyone who spent the majority of their career as a designated hitter should automatically disqualify them from the Hall of Fame.   Over the years I have come to realize that even though I hate the DH, it is a part of the game, so I've softened my stance to that where if someone's offensive numbers are among the best of their era, they belong in the hall.  That isn't the case with Edgar Martinez
He may have been the greatest designated hitter of all time before David Ortiz came along (Paul Molitor doesn't count since he did in fact play the majority of his career in the infield before becoming a DH in his mid-30's), but he still wasn't an elite hitter.  He only reached 30 home runs one time, playing most of his career in the home run friendly Kingdome.  In his 12 years as a DH, he only won four silver sluggers, so for most of that time, there was some DH that was better than him.  On top of that, he was injury prone, only playing seven full seasons without at least one stint on the disabled list.
In addition, even though I stated that everything from the steroid era should be taken at face value, it can come into play on someone that is a borderline or questionable Hall of Famer, so in the case of someone like Martinez who already has a weak case, gets completely knocked out due to being implicated having used steroids.

Fred McGriff: In any other era, 493 home runs would have been more than enough to get someone enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  When he made his MLB debut in 1986, only 13 players had hit more home runs than that.  Now that number is at 25.  Taking out two players from previous generations (Mike Schmidt and Eddie Murray), there are ten players from his era or later that have hit more homers, making it no longer an automatic trip to Cooperstown.
So the question is, are his other numbers and accomplishments enough to make McGriff a Hall of Famer?  The answer is a simple no.  Like I said for Trammell: He was a pretty damn good player, but there is nothing about him, be it his stats, accomplishments, career body of work, or "intagibles" that make him a Hall of Famer.

Larry Walker: Read my last line on the Trammell and McGriff entries.

Mark McGwire: More so than anyone else, the steroid issue hurts McGwire's hall chances more than anyone else.  And while there is a lot of hypocrisy and inconsistencies to go along with way
For one, aside from getting a bunch of walks, McGwire was the one guy that was nothing but a home run hitter.  Accurate or not, most people associate steroids with home runs.  McGwire was a lifetime .263 hitter and hit very extra base hits other than home runs- his 22 doubles per 162 games are unimpressive for anyone, but especially low for someone with his kind of power.  Aside from somehow managing to win a gold glove award, his defense was subpar. 
And McGwire wasn't just a user, he, along with his fellow Bash Brother Jose Canseco, were the players responsible for bringing steroids into the game.  And it was the 1998 home run chase that motivated many of the players all across baseball to jump across to the dark side.  So if anybody deserves to be punished, it's him.
That being said, like I said, we need to accept that it was an integral part of the era and take everything at face value.  And McGwire put up the greatest power numbers of all time.  He averaged 36.4 home runs in his 16 seasons, second only to Ralph Kiner's 36.9 over 10 seasons.  Per 162 games, he averaged 50 home runs, as well as one homer every 10.4 at bats, both major league records, by a longshot.
It wasn't all steroids either.  According to Canseco (who, as pathetic as he is, has proven to have a lot of credibility over this after being proven to be right time and time again), McGwire began juicing during his second year in the big leagues.  So what did McGwire do when he was a rookie, without the steroids?  He lead the major leagues with 49 homers, still the record for a rookie.
So because he was the greatest power hitter in the history of the game, McGwire belongs in the hall.

Don Mattingly: Here was a guy that was destined for greatness. From a 23-year-old in 1984 up until 1987, he was consistently one of the best hitters in baseball, making the All Star team every year up until 1989, the top year being his 1985 MVP campaign. On top of all that, he was the best defensive first baseman in baseball and the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle.
Then he started to suffer from back problems, and even though he could still field, his bat began to deteriorate, forcing him to retire following the 1995 season at the age of 34.  What could have been one the greatest careers ever turned out to be a huge disappointment.
Regardless, his combination of offense and being arguably the greatest defensive first baseman of all time gives him a strong case towards the hall.  Overall though, I'd have to say no.  What he did in his prime was not sufficient enough to make up for his lack of longevity.

Dale Murphy: Thankfully this is his last year of his eligibility.  I really don't get how this guy even continues to get the 5% needed to return to the ballot every year.  Murphy was a decent player, but had extremely underwhelming numbers for the Hall of Fame to the point where he doesn't really belong with the other returning candidates, let alone those enshrined in Cooperstown.  Huge no.

Rafael Palmeiro: Nobody in baseball went from sure-fire Hall of Famer to no chance in hell as fast as Palmeiro did when a positive steroid test caused him a 10 game suspension.  The big difference between him and the rest of the users is that he got busted for using after it got banned, and actually served a suspension.
It would be one thing to overlook if he was, in fact, one of the greats, but he wasn't.  He achieved the rare combo of 3,000 hits and 500 homers, but it was because he was a consistently solid player for close to two decades.  
He would have been a classic "milestone" Hall of Famer, which is a player that gets into Cooperstown solely on the backs of one (or in his case, two) of those milestones that nets a player automatic enshrinement.  However, it has gotten to the point where the numbers no longer make it automatic, and without those milestones, Palmeiro isn't a Hall of Famer.

Bernie Williams: Read my Larry Walker entry.

So of the returning candidates, only Bagwell, Raines, and McGwire belong in Cooperstown.  Within the next couple days I will do the main write up on the first year inductees, particularly Barry Bonds.


Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Done with Brian Wilson

After Robb Nen blew out his arm trying to win the Giants the World Series in 2002, it was hell trying to find a replacement.  Tim Worrell was adequate in 03, but it went downhill after that.  The Giants let Worrell go to free agency thinking Nen would be back for the 2004 season.  When that didn't happen, Matt Herges was promoted and failed.  He was replaced sometime in August by Dustin Hermanson, who was good for a minute before blowing a few crucial saves over the last couple weeks that cost the Giants the division.
Then the Giants thought they found the answer when they signed Armando Benitez, who had come off a career year with the Marlins in which he pitched better than any closer in baseball,  to a three year, $21 million contract.  That turned out to be one of the worst signings the Giants have made.  He got injured one week into the season in 2005, the first year of his contract, missing most of the season.  In the interim, Tyler Walker filled in, poorly.  Benitez returned in mid August, and was complete garbage from that time, until he was given away, while the Giants ate the rest of his contract, to the Marlins, for a worthless nobody reliever in Randy Messenger early in the 2007 season.   Brad Hennessey filled in with less than satisfactory results until Wilson took over the role near the end of the season.
During Wilson's first full year as closer in 2008, he was mediocre, but reliable.  After filtering through Herges, Hermanson, Benitez, Walker, and Hennessey, mediocre but reliable felt like a godsend, and Wilson was Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera combined into one compared to those guys.   In 2009, Wilson showed vast improvement, developing into one of baseball's better closers, and began to show signs of his off-beat, colorful personality that he became known for, and was even given his reality show on Comcast Sports Bay Area.
However, it was 2010 that Wilson became a star.  He had become one of baseball's elite closer's, and became more well known for his personality thanks to appearances on Rome is Burning and Jim Rose's The Cheap Seats.  Every time he was subject to an interview, he'd provide entertaining soundbites and moments that would leave you howling with laughter.  Every time he took the mound to finish the game, he would make you sweat a little, but always got the job done and was lights out.  He grew out a beard, dyed in black, and became one of, if not the, key players in the World Series run.  His strikeouts of Ryan Howard to end the NLCS and Nelson Cruz to end the World Series will always remain two of the most iconic and memorable images in Giants history.  
After that, it was all downhill.  At some point, the attention sprung onto him and his quirky antics during the post-season run had gone to his head.  Amidst the endorsements, merchandise sales, and media attention, he had changed.
As the beard grew, his act became more stale, annoying, and over the top.  The funny, off-beat, and goofy Wilson became a cartoonish, annoying, attention whore.  What previously seemed like off the cuff, funny moments became lame, planned out publicity stunts.  From his insipid George Lopez appearance to his spandex tuxedo at the ESPYs, to rehashing tired bits, everybody became sick of his acts.
It would be fine if he continued to pitch like he did in 2010, but he didn't.  It almost seemed like his drive for attention outweighed his drive on the field.  He started 2011 with an oblique injury, ended it with an elbow injury.  In between, he returned to the mediocre closer he was in 2008.
A young closer on a rebuilding team with no playoff hopes pitching the way he did is fine.  A now veteran closer pitching for the defending World Series champions looking to repeat is not, especially with all his antics.
Then came 2011.  After two shaky starts, Wilson had to have Tommy John surgery for the second time, thus missing the rest of the season, while making $8.5 million.  Meanwhile, his antics went from annoying to pathetic.  He went from a guy that was milking his time in the limelight to a guy who had fallen out of the limelight desperate to get back in.  From returning to the ESPYs to Chewbacca, to re-appearing during the Giants playoff run just to get camera time.  All the while the Giants were on the path to another World Series, this time without him.
So now, in his final arbitration year, the Giants are caught in a dilemma.  Since he made $8.5 million, he cannot receive more than a 20% pay-cut, making it a minimum $6.8 million in arbitration if the Giants tender him a contract.  Obviously not wanting to pay someone coming off a surgery that few do successfully a second time, and with the superior Sergio Romo having proved that he can handle being the closer, the Giants are hoping to simply sign him to a much lower base contract, possible laden with incentives.
Wilson says no way.  He feels like the Giants owe him for what he's done for the team, and he deserves to be tendered a contract and make at least that $6.8 million.
I guess making $8.5 million for doing nothing wasn't enough.
If Wilson doesn't accept a low end contract, I say goodbye and good riddance.  Would I have liked to bring him back for a low end contract?  No doubt, at least before this little entitlement ego trip.   The fact is, the Giants don't need him.  They have Sergio Romo, who previously was always far more dominating than Wilson, but the Giants were skeptical about him making the transition to closer.  Now that he has proven he can get the job done in the ninth (and pitched even better this year after making the transition), it's his job for the long haul.  They have three guys (Affeldt, Casilla, and Kontos) who I would much rather have in the game than Wilson in a non-save situation.  Then there's the two lefty specialists (Lopez and Mijares).  That leaves the last bullpen spot open, and when you have that deep of a bullpen, it's not a pressing need.  If anything, he should be crawling back on his knees for the Giants to give him any sort of major league contract, not demanding big money because it's owed to him.
Let's suppose Wilson signs a one year deal, with the Giants, or some other team, and he does have a phenomenal year.  As a result, he cashes in on a big money, multi-year contract with another team.  And on this team, he pitches horribly.  Would he ever offer to give back some of that contract?  So why should he get a lot more money that he is worth based on what he did three years prior?
If Wilson is as confident as he claims to be that he'll be back to form by opening day, he needs to back it up and prove he's not all talk.  If he was truly that sure, he would glady take a one year, heavily incentive laden contract.  He could pick up millions in incentives, and then cash in on a long term deal.  Let him earn it.  Of course, deep down he knows it's unlikely he will ever return to his 2010 form, and is grasping at his final chance of a huge payday.
Perhaps Wilson is being petty.  Perhaps this goes back to 2007, in which Wilson, who entered Spring Training as a strong possibility to take Benitez' closer job, wound up struggling in Spring Training and as a result spent four and a half months in the minor leagues.  The time spent in Fresno pushed back each of Wilson's arbitration years, and ultimately his free agency, back one year.  So yeah, perhaps it did cost him some cash.
But how much really?  He probably would have received an extra million or two in 2009, but about the same amount in the three years that followed.  Perhaps had this been his first free agent year rather than next, he could have gotten the Giants to lock him down to a long term deal prior to his Tommy John surgery.  So is Wilson, the supposed "team player", mad that he didn't get the chance to fleece the Giants?
I will always appreciate Wilson for what he did for the Giants in 2010, but I am pretty much tired of him.  From his overrated pitching on the field, to his stupid antics off the field, to his popularity among bandwagoners, I am over it.  And now that he feels the Giants owe him after getting paid $8.5 million this year for nothing?  He can go fuck himself. 
Ultimately, when Wilson needs the Giants a hell of a lot more than the Giants need him, he really has no leverage.  And if he goes elsewhere, the fans won't be as patient or forgiving with him, or tolerant of his antics as the Giants fans would be.  Offering a Major League contract at any amount is doing him a favor.  After all this, he'll probably be crawling back for a couple million dollars when the Giants are the only team offering him a major league contract (or at least more than any other team).  If he does, cool, the Giants get a little possible extra depth to the already deep bullpen.  If he leaves, all I got to say at this point is good riddance.  The team has already moved on without him and proved they don't need him. 
I just hope he lands on a team with a no facial hair policy.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

The Sabermetric WARs

In 1977, Bill James sparked a revolution in baseball thinking that challenged what people have always believed about the game.  He started to gain a cult following from readers of his annual baseball abstracts, to the point where his work has effected the way every single team in baseball is run today.  In the process, it has sparked a major debate between old school and new school that has been a central point in many baseball discussions, coming to a major head in the Mike Trout/ Miguel Cabrera debate.
I know I've already mentioned this in my previous post, but baseball writers are idiots.  Not because they voted for Cabrera, as he was equally deserving as Trout.  Neither one winning a travesty, a joke, or even wrong.  It was their reasoning, which is rooted in the troglodyte old school thinking that was a complete joke and shows their stupidity.
However, after reading the complaints about Trout not getting MVP, it is clear many of the people who rely on Sabermetrics aren't any smarter than those who rely on antiquated and misleading stats such as batting average, RBIs, wins, etc.
There has been a long misconception about the true purpose of sabermetrics on both sides of the debate.  Statistics have been deeply rooted into the game of baseball since it's inception.  What Bill James (and the many that have come after him) did was simply figure out which statistics are most reliable, and how to compile various data into new statistics that are useful to evaluate players.
The problem is, there are people within the sabermetric community that simply don't have the mental capacity to take all things, statistical or otherwise, into consideration, and rely on what they perceive to be a be-all/ end-all statistic and something that can end all arguments.  At the moment, that statistic is wins above replacement, or WAR.
The original statistic was total player rating (TPR) back in the 1980's, in which each event by a hitter, baserunner, or fielder was assigned a value based on the probability of how often whatever happened led to a run, or decreased the chance of a run.  However, TPR was so heavily flawed the Bill James came along with equivalent average (EqA) in the mid 90's, a stat that combined walks, steals, total bases, sacrifices into a percentage stat in which the league average was the same as batting average.  As sabermetrics became more mainstream in the late 90's/ early 2000's, it was simplified for those new to it and combine the two most valuable traditional statistics (OBP and SLG) into one statistic, on base plus slugging (OPS), which later lost favor to advanced OPS (OPS+), taking into account ballpark factors and league averages.  Since OPS and OPS+ are more or less an arbitrary statistics since OPS is based upon simply adding two separate statistics together, they went again looking for something less arbitrary and came up with runs created per 27 outs (RC27) which uses the same stats as EqA but converts it into a number similar to ERA so that hitters and pitchers could be more compared.
When the trend became looking for value, win shares, in which every team is allocated a certain amount of points (three for every win) to their players, became the most popular statistic.  As that was too heavily reliant on team performance, they turned to value over replacement player (VORP) which was the number of runs added to the team compared to some scrub that can easily be found via free agency or the minor leagues.  VORP eventually gave way to wins above replacement (WAR), which is where we are now.
 WAR, and many other sabermetric statistics, are inherently flawed mainly because it attempts to statistically evaluate things that you can't put into numbers and can only evaluate subjectively. Among them:
*Accurately determine how many games a player won for their team.  There are way too many intangibles to evaluate that.
*Combining offense, defense, and pitching numbers into the same statistic.  These are completely different aspects of the game that cannot be quantified within the same stat.  You might as well create a WAR formula for basketball so you can compare Lebron James to Trout or Cabrera.
*Statistically altering a players offensive value compared to others in their position.  Obviously, a middle infielder's bat is more valuable than a first baseman with similar numbers, but again, there's no true way of knowing
*Even though it's not part of WAR, ballpark factors are taken into account for other notable formuals (such as OPS+ and ERA+).  For starters, every ballpark affects every ballplayer differently. Secondly, the ballpark factors can randomly fluctuate from year to year, so it's not uncommon for a hitter to have a better year than the year before but do worse in stats that take into account ballpark because the other hitters on his team did better at home while the pitchers did better on the road than the previous year.  Third, even if every ballpark affected every player the same, and the numbers didn't fluctuate, there is still no way to accurately calculate how much better someone Buster Posey would have done outside of AT&T Park.
According to WAR, Robinson Cano was better than Miguel Cabrera this year.  Considering both players had the same exact number of games plate and plate appearances, it's pretty easy to compare them.  Cabrera beat Cano pretty easily in nearly every category, except for having just two more strikeouts, eight fewer doubles (although Cabrera had 11 more homers).  Yet, because Cano was a second baseman, he had a higher offensive WAR (oWAR) by nearly a full point, and a better overall WAR by over a point.  And Mike Trout may have been the better player from May through July, but you can't tell me that he came close to Cabrera the last two months of the year, especially in September.  Yet, WAR will try to tell you.  Any stat that has Mike Trout's mediocre September being better (1.8 WAR) than Miguel Cabrera's (1.5 WAR) cannot be taken seriously.
And if going by WAR, do you know whose had the highest among position players in the American League since 2009, leading the league twice?  Ben Zobrist.  Not Miguel Cabrera.  Not Robinson Cano.  Not Josh Hamilton.  Ben Zobrist.  This offensive line sure looks like a superstar to me.
And don't even get me started on wins probably added (WPA).  WPA, which has been around in various incarnations since long before Bill James came long, but has received more and more attention lately in wins probability added (WPA), calculates the difference between the team's likelihood of winning before and after each of the player's at bat.  All I have to say is this: if a player hits a home run in a game, and his team wins by one run, it doesn't matter what the score was, what inning, or how many outs there were at the time.  At the end of the game, that home run ultimately counted the same and won the team the game.
Trying to say that Trout was a better hitter than Cabrera, citing oWAR and WPA as the reasons why, is equally as dumb as saying Cabrera deserved MVP because he won three arbitrary statistics or that the Tigers made the playoffs with one less win than the Angels.
Overall, the debate has pretty much devolved into two groups of idiots.  On one hand, you have the old school people who  are two stubborn to admit that what they've been taught and grown up believing is wrong.  They still rely on batting average, which basically means they believe that a single, double, triple, and home run are all worth the same and walks don't mean anything.  They rely on stats like runs, RBIs, and win-loss record, which are heavily reliant on how their team performs.  They ignore factors that show whether or not a pitcher is as good as their ERA indicated.
Then you have those that embrace the newer stats, but lack the mental ability to look at a player's entire stat line and form their own conclusions, so they have to rely on a formula they probably don't even understand and use it as the definitive stat as if it's the ultimate answer to end all arguments, be it TPR, eQA, OPS, win shares, OPS+/ ERA+, RC27, VORP, or WAR.    You can't even debate with these people, as they are convinced that everything they think is fact since WAR (or whatever else they use) say so.
All these newer stats are good for baseball, as long as you know how to utilize them.  There will never be a definitive formula, no matter how hard people try to come up with one.  Instead of trying to combine them all into one formula, look at everything individually.  Look at all the numbers on the stat line, and yes, include everything from the antiquated statistics to the pointlessly convoluted formulas.  Take into account intangibles that cannot be statistically evaluated, be it park factors, how they compare to others in their position, etc.  Then come up with your own conclusion. That's what Bill James has always done with his evaluations and predictions.

Friday, November 16, 2012

The Trout/ Cabrera Debate

First off, I just want to say that whenever one of your own gets the premiere individual award in all of baseball, it's an awesome feeling.  To see someone homegrown, it's even more special.
Congrats to Buster.  We really are watching the genesis of a future legend in Posey, and we lucky to have this once in a generation player on our team.
Now, onto the more talked about MVP in the American League.  Miguel Cabrera, even though he was a lock to win, won by a much larger margin than expected, carrying 22 out of 28 first place votes.
It's a vote that could have gone either way and it would have been deserving.  One (Cabrera) was obviously the better hitter, the other (Trout) the better fielder and baserunner.   Since the season ended, I have been saying that it's a travesty that Cabrera was going to win over Trout.  But after, further thought, I realized that Cabrera winning isn't a travesty, and the thing that got me all worked up was the true travesty, the reasons why Cabrera won.
Considering one voter, Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beach Journal (who should be banned from ever voting on any award ever again) voted Beltre over Trout for second place, thus breaking a potential 14-14 tie, Trout would have needed nine more votes to beat out Cabrera.   And there's two things that would have definitely shifted the award in Trout's favor:
1. Detroit won their division, while the Angels missed out on the playoffs.  Using team performance to justify Cabrera as MVP, when the Angels had a better record by one game in a much tougher division is baffling.  The Tigers had the seventh best record out of 14 teams in the American League, and you award the MVP to one of their players based on team performance?  Are you kidding me?  And if you factor in that the Angels strength of schedule (average winning percentage of opponents in each of the 162 games) was .513, while the Tigers was .495, the Angels were clearly the better team.  Had the Angels been in the Central, they likely would have run away with the division, while the Tigers would have been a distant fourth place in the West.
If the Tigers had missed out on the playoffs, or the Angels had made it, Trout would have easily made up that nine game swing.  And yet, Cabrera was given the Award because the White Sox, Royals, Indians, and Twins were significantly inferior to the A's, Rangers, and Angels.
2. The triple crown.  Yeah, it's a cool accomplishment, but it shouldn't be a factor.  If one believes that Cabrera was the MVP with or without the triple crown, that's fine.  But the triple crown is not a reason to give Cabrera MVP, and here's why:
Cabrera lead the league with 44 home runs.  Josh Hamilton and Curtis Granderson both had 43.  Had either of those two hit two more, Cabrera would not have won the triple crown.  So if some player on another team hit two more homers, would that have made Cabrera any less valuable, or Trout any more valuable?  If you believe that the triple crown is the reason why Cabrera deserves MVP, then your answer is yes.  And I truly believe that had Cabrera not won the triple crown, then Trout would have won the MVP.
The real debate is whether or not Cabrera's offensive superiority outweighed Trout's defensive and baserunning superiority. Let's take a closer look:
Considering it is the most valuable player award, we need to look at it from the standpoint of how many games Cabrera and Trout won for their respective teams.  And let's throw WAR out the window, as if you're going by that, Ben Zobrist would be a two-time MVP.  Hell, Robinson Cano beat out Cabrera for second place, and there's nobody other than possibly some biased Yankee fans that will say that Cano was more deserving of Cabrera this year.
The huge gap in stolen bases doesn't really make as much of a difference as one would think.  I looked at each of Trout's stolen bases, and removed the following that were ultimately non factors in the team's record:
*steals games in which the Angels lost, or won by two or more runs
*steals in which Trout failed to score or would have scored regardless
All in all, Trout had just one game in which his baserunning made a difference (June 11th against the Dodgers).  So despite having 45 more steals than Cabrera, it made a measly one game difference.
As for defensive, yes Trout was a far superior defender.  But how much of a difference did that make?  According to uZR, which determines how many runs a player saves or costs his team with his glove, Cabrera cost the Tigers pitchers 10 runs with his glove while Trout saved the Angels pitchers 11 runs.  Over the course of a season, that accounts to two fewer wins for the Tigers and one more win for the Angels, making Trout's net defensive value over Cabrera 3 games.
So if you factor in that Trout's defense and baserunning was four games better than Cabrera, does Cabrera's bat make a difference?  Let's take a look.
The best way to do this, again, is to look at each players game by game performance in each of their team's respective wins.  The most precise way to do this would be to look up the results of every win, and replace each hit or walk with an out and see how many fewer runs their team would have scored.  If the difference was equal or greater to the margin of victory for that game, they get credit for the win.
However, that would take way too long, so instead, I'll simply look at runs and RBIs, divide it by two (so they don't get double credit for home runs and half credit for driving in a run or being driven in by somebody else).  If it comes out to half a number, I round up:
Cabrera's bat made a difference in 16 wins.  Trout's bat was a factor in 14 (not counting the one where I already gave him credit for the stolen base winning the game).
So overall, Trout accounted for 17 wins for the Angels, while Cabrera played a part in 15 wins.   Granted, the Tigers and Angels still probably win about half of those games without their stars, leaving Trout with 9 wins and Cabrera with 8, making Trout one game more valuable.
There's also one other factor you have to take into account, and that's something that (rightfully) plays a huge factor in the MVP voting every year, and that's performance during the stretch drive.  Trout put up phenomenal numbers from May to July, but had a massive drop-off in August and September, putting up far less than MVP numbers.  Cabrera on the other hand, put up MVP numbers the entire time.  If you flip their performances the last two months of the season, the Tigers don't come close to sniffing the playoffs, while the Angels win the West easily.  So despite Trout being slightly more valuable in terms of games won for his team, it is more than reasonable to give the MVP to Cabrera because he came through when his team needed him the most.
Either one would have been a good choice.  Just not for the reasons Cabrera won.
And just for the hell of it, I will calculate the difference Posey made for the Giants.  You can't really factor in defense considering the defensive stats for catcher are not conclusive (although the Giants did get some wins for the way he handled the staff), but on offense alone he factored in a 20 game difference using this formula, meaning the Giants would have won 10 fewer games without his bat alone.  Factor in the way he handled the pitching staff was way more effective than any sort of defensive performance possible by a player at any other position, it is clear that Posey is not only the National League MVP, but MLB's Most Valuable Player.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Affeldt should thank the Dodgers for his new contract

When Brandon League signed a 3 year, $21 million contract to re-sign with the Dodgers, I had written an article about the possible effect of contracts around the league.  I didn't publish it because it was boring, but the overall summary of it is that one massive overpay can drive up costs for free agents around the majors, and now we're already seeing it.
Jeremy Affeldt, who a few years ago, resigned with the Giants for 2 years, $8.5 million, and was barely considered worth picking up his $5 million option this year, not only got a raise, but for three years.  That's what happens an inferior reliever gets more money than you did.
Just think.  One year ago, Huston Street  only got 3 years and $20 million despite being younger than League and being a proven effective closer.  Thanks to League's contract, any proven, reliable closer like Street will cost at least $10 million annually, so the Padres can be thankful they got their guy a year earlier.
There's at least a dozen relievers still on the market better than League that will command similar to what Affeldt got or even higher, something that has unheard of for non closer/ dominating middle reliever.  And for someone like Rafael Soriano, we may see a record contract for a reliever. And this will continue to drive up the Giants payroll, as guys like Romo and Casilla will make more in arbitration.
As for Affeldt's contract, I like it.  The third year may be a bit too much, as we don't know if he'll still be any good in 2015 when he's 36, but for now, he's definitely worth the money.

Monday, November 5, 2012

A look at the 2013 season

Now that the hot stove is underway, it's time to look at the current Giants roster, the payroll, and what holes to fill.
First off, the Giants payroll was around $120 million this year.  Considering they went to the World Series, that should allow them to add another $10-20 million (they upped the payroll $20 million when they won in 2010), but of course, we can't be too sure of that, so let's look at it as if they're keeping the payroll in place.

Expiring contracts:
Aaron Rowand 12MM
Aubrey Huff 8MM (10MM 2012 contract- 2MM buyout)
Melky Cabrera 6MM
Freddy Sanchez 6MM
Jeremy Affeldt 5MM
Angel Pagan 4.85MM
Marco Scutaro 1.7MM
Ryan Theriot 1.25MM
Guillermo Mota 1MM
Nate Schierholtz 827K
Brad Penny 376K
Total: 47MM

Salary escalation:
Matt Cain +5MM
Tim Lincecum +4MM
Pablo Sandoval +2.5MM
Ryan Vogelsong +2MM
Barry Zito +1MM
Madison Bumgarner +190K
Total 14.69MM

Arbitration eligible + 2012 salary:
Hunter Pence 10.4MM (3.15MM with the Giants)
Brian Wilson 8.5MM
Santiago Casilla 2.2MM
Sergio Romo 1.575MM
Jose Mijares 925K
Clay Hensley 750K
Emmanuel Burris 625K
Buster Posey 615K
Eli Whiteside 600K
Gregor Blanco 516K
Yusmeiro Petit
Joaquin Arias

So in total , the Giants have about $32 million freed up, not counting arbitration raises, so let's look at the breakdown of each player that arbitration eligible, how much they should be expected to make, and what I would do:

Hunter Pence- The fact that Pence had a huge performance dropoff in 2012, particular after the trade, will help the Giants big time.  Had he performed like he has in previous seasons, he'd be looking at upwards of $15 million.  Each year he's been arbitration eligible, he's received a raise between $3 million and $3.5 million.  Considering his poor performance, he won't receive that, but a small raise to something slightly above $12 million, or $9 more than what the Giants paid him in 2012.
It's a given he'll be back, but the question is will it be for one year or will the Giants attempt to sign him to multi-year deal?  Perhaps re-sign to two years along the lines of $25 million with an option for the third year.

Brian Wilson- this one is somewhat tricky.  Under CBA rules, a player cannot receive more than a 20% paycut in arbitration, so Wilson would be receive a minimum of $6.8MM in arbitration.  Considering he wouldn't get that much on the free agent market, and he's coming off of Tommy John, and that Sergio Romo has the closer's job locked down at this point, I would offer contract along the lines of $4-5 million and non tender him.  If some team is willing to pay more than, let them.  Although because of his popularity and marketability, I see the team giving him that $6.8MM minimum, or a $1.7 MM paycut.

Santiago Casilla- considering that his salary has gone up approximately $900k each of the last two season, I see it following that pattern again, bringing his salary up another $900k to $3.1MM.  Perhaps add in an extra year to his contract, buying out his first free agent year, making it a two year/ $8MM contract.

Sergio Romo- This one is tricky.  I can see him getting something similar to what Wilson got after 2010 during his second arbitration year ($6.5MM in 2011, $8.5MM in 2012).  A big difference is that Wilson was making nearly $3MM more that year than what Romo made this year.  I can see Romo getting a raise of upwards to $5MM, which is approximately $3.5MM more than 2012 (which is the raise Wilson got after 2009 after he emerged as a top closer).  Romo has two more years before he hits free agency, so maybe buy out his last two arbitration years and first year or two of free agency.

Jose Mijares- For a first year arbitration coming off a good season, should get a raise but not too much.  Somewhere along the lines of an extra million or so bringing his salary to just under $2 million.  Let's just say $900K to match Casilla's annual raise.

Clay Hensley-  Considering the depth of the Giants bullpen and Hensley is a 33 year old coming off a subpar season, there's really no point keeping him around, especially since he'd likely get another 500-750K.

Emmanuel Burriss, Eli Whiteside, Yusmeiro Petit- Goodbye.  Useless.

Joaquin Arias- A solid utility infielder making league minimum in 2012, makes sense to keep him around.  Wouldn't command more than a 500K raise.

Buster Posey- this is one of the main ones.  You gotta look at Lincecum's record setting contract after winning back to back Cy Youngs as the starting point.  Lincecum got a two year contract making $9 million in 2010 and $14 million in 2011.  I'd probably sign him to a long term deal, using Lincecum's four arbitration years as the template.  From 2010-2013, Lincecum's two two year deals add up to $63 million.  I'd like to see the Giants match that for Posey, and then add his first two free agent years for an extra $47 million or so, making it a 6 year/ $110MM contract.  On a one year basis, Posey will receive at least a $10MM raise and break Ryan Howard's first year arbitration record.

Gregor Blanco- I think you gotta look at Andres Torres after 2010 as the template for this one.  Like Blanco, Torres was a minor league scrub who broke through with the Giants, helping them win a World Series and for his efforts got a $1.8MM raise.  Considering Blanco didn't have nearly the offensive year Torres had two years ago and will likely be looking to be a backup next year, I say he gets about half that which would be $900K

Considering the estimated arbitration raises (based on one year deals):
Posey $10MM
Pence $9MM
Romo $3.5MM
Mijares $900K
Casilla $900K
Blanco $900K
Arias $500K

Non tenders:
Wilson $8.5 MM
Hensley 750K


So considering the arbitration numbers are all estimates, the Giants have along the lines of $15 million to spend, plus whatever the front office decides to add to the maximum payroll.  Here's what we're looking at:
C. Posey
1B. Belt
2B. ?
3B. Sandoval
SS. Crawford
LF. ?
CF. ?
Rf. Pence
Bench:
C. Sanchez
IF. ?
IF. ?
OF. Blanco
OF. ?
SP. Cain
SP. Bumgarner
SP. Lincecum
SP. Vogelsong
SP. Zito
CL. Romo
P. Lopez
P. Mijares
P. Kontos
P. Casilla
P. ?
P. ?

In order to keep this team intact, specifically Scutaro, Pagan, Wilson, and Affeldt, would cost a combined $30 million a year, or something along those long.  The backup infield and outfield spots could be filled from within (Pill, Noonan) or some low cost free agent like Theriot.  So right now, we're basically looking at an extra $15 million added to the payroll just keeping what we have, with the need to find another outfielder.  I would bring back Melky in a second if it was a 1-2 year deal and not making more than $5-6MM a year.  Otherwise, who knows?  I'd make a run for BJ Upton.  He's still young, fast, is good for 20+ homers, and has the possibility of a breakout season, and would be willing to sign a short-term contract so he could have that breakout year and cash in.  Maybe something along the lines of two years $20-$25 million perhaps?  Of course, this would mean a $140+ million payroll, or about the same increase as it was last time the Giants won the World Series.
I guess it all comes down to how much the front office is willing to spend.  Last year they were able to make the adjustments needed without raising payroll, hopefully they can do it again if the ownership group won't open their purse strings.

Two In Three/ Introduction

Before I get into the post, I just want to do a little introduction.  As a die-hard Giants fan, I figure I would create this blog as an outlet for my thoughts, analysis, lists, rankings, random tidbits, and whatever else is on my mind.  Eventually, I will come up with some sort of catchy name, but for now, San Francisco Giants Blog will have to do.   I will try to post as often as I can about the latest news, games, or for now, whatever is going on in the hot stove.  I'll also try to find a few contributors to help post their thoughts to add some variety to it.

Now, that that is out of the way, I feel like I want to put this second championship in three years into words.  I wanted to write up something similar, but just simply couldn't find the right words.  Now I think I can do it.

For all my life, all I wanted was to see the Giants win one World Series.  It finally happened on November 1, 2010.  At the time,

This time, I think I have more perspective.  When the Giants won in 2010, I thought I would be satisfied for life.  I thought all the pain from all the heartbreak from over the years would go away, from winning 103 games in 1993 and not even making the playoffs, to blowing the 7-0 lead on the last day of the season thanks to walk off home run by Neifi Perez, forcing a one game playoff against the Cubs in which the Giants eventually lost, to losing back to back extra inning games to the Mets in 2000 followed by a one hitter by Bobby Jones, to game 6 in 2002, to Jose Cruz' dropped fly ball, Steve Finley's grand slam, and everything in between.  With each World Series win, the pain has lessened, but I now know that it will never fully go away.  I also now realize that no matter how many World Series the Giants win, I will always want another one as badly as I wanted that first one.

Knowing this has enabled me to cherish this one more than 2010.  After the Giants won it in 2010, I thought I would be riding that high the rest of my life, but once that banner was raised, the players got their rings, and the 2011 season was underway, it was back to business as usual.  Knowing what to expect will enable me to appreciate this next six months

I didn't think 2010 could be topped, but this championship felt even better.  2010 will always be special because it was the first time most of us Giants fans got to witness a World Series title, but the way they won it this year, going on a roll and running away with the division, coming back from the dead twice, and then sweeping the World Series, has made it even more special.  On top of that, the 2010 regular season was mostly uneventful.  Can anyone recall anything memorable, other than the clincher on the last day of the season?  This year, we had a perfect game, dominated the All Star game with four starters, including the winning pitcher and MVP (and yes, I'll still lay claim to that MVP since if it wasn't Melky, it would have been Pablo, who should have won it anyway).  We saw the emergence of Buster Posey into one of baseball's elite, complete with a battle title, comeback player of the year award, and the obvious MVP.

Anyone that is a vital part of any World Series team will have a special spot in the team's history and it's fans hearts.  But to think, a franchise that couldn't win a World Series with McCovey, Cepeda, Marichal, Perry, Bonds, and countless other greats (and only one with Willie Mays), means that those guys that were a crucial part of both World Series teams deserve mention among the greatest Giants ever, and I want to give them all a special mention.

Starting off with Brian Sabean.  I've been as big of a Sabean critic as anyone, and with good reason.  After he won Executive of the Year Award in 2003, he made a lot of idiotic moves for a lot of years.  However, after building two World Series teams, it's hard to say anything negative about him at the moment.

Bruce Bochy was another one I wasn't exactly a fan of.  I wasn't too thrilled when they signed him as manager prior to the 2007 season, and made quite a few questionable moves.  However, the way he managed the team during both post-season runs has established him as an immortal in Giants history, and the greatest manager the team has had since John McGraw.  And watching his managing compared to Dusty Baker during the NLDS shows how much better we have it compared to what we had to endure from 1993-2002.

There were 11 players that were on the post-season roster in both 2010 and 2012, the last person to have done that with the Giants prior was Hall of Fame shortstop Travis Jackson who was on the 1922 and 1933 World Series championship teams.   Guillermo Mota was pretty much along for the ride both times, Pablo Sandoval was a non factor in 2008, and Aubrey Huff was a non factor this season.  That leaves eight players that deserve special mention:

Matt Cain has been with the organization for over a decade now, and it has been special watching him move through the system from 2002-2005, and gradually improving each year since his rookie season in 2006 before becoming one of baseball's elite pitchers this season.  As the longest tenured Giant, and signed through 2018 (which would make it 14 seasons with the team and 17 with the organization if he makes it to the end), already having won two world series, pitched a perfect game, and continually getting better, he has a good chance of his name being up there with the likes of Mathewson, Hubbell, and Marichal among the greatest Giants pitchers ever.

Despite his miserable regular season, Tim Lincecum is still the rock star of the team, as evident by the reaction at AT&T Park every time he warmed up the bullpen or entered in relief during the post-season.  And while he wasn't the ace he was during his two Cy Young seasons or the first World Series year, the Giants likely don't win the second championship if he doesn't pitch the way he did out of the bullpen this year.

To think that Madison Bumgarner just turned 23 and has already done what he has done is unbelievable.  To put things in perspective, Lincecum was still in the minor leagues, while Cain was going through some serious growing pains.  He's already played a crucial part in two World Series teams and just missed making the All Star team this year (not to mention was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2011 after his horrible start.  He may have hit a rough patch down the stretch and into the post-season, but the fact that he has had pitched 15 shutout innings with 14 strikeouts in two World Series starts is remarkable.

Then there's the bullpen.  Sergio Romo almost singlehandly cost the Giants the NLDS against the Braves in the NLDS in 2010 and didn't pitch in any key situations after that, but they would not have won the division without him.  On top of that, the past two years he's been one of the best relief pitchers in the game (arguably the best), the majority of the time being virtually unhittable, and once he emerged from the bullpen by committee as the ninth inning guy, the rest of the bullpen fell into place.  The trade with the Pirates for Javier Lopez in 2010 was crucial to the Giants World Series run that year, and has continued to be one of the premiere lefty specialists.  When it's a late game crucial situation and the other team's best left handed hitter is up, you know Lopez will get the job done when Bochy brings him.  Jeremy Affeldt is almost as good as getting lefties out but is equally effective with lefties.  He has hit some rough patches at times over the past few years, but his clutch pitching during both post-season runs will go down as something of Giants legend.  And Santiago Casilla has been top notch in the bullpen over the past few seasons, aside from his failed run as closer this year.

That brings me to the cornerstone of the franchise, Buster Posey.  He's basically played two seasons in the big leagues (2011 doesn't really count), and has arguably meant more to the team than any player since Willie Mays.  If he doesn't break his leg last year, we may be looking at a three-peat.  We are truly witnessing the beginning of what is possibly a once in a generation player.  Considering he was still recovering from his injury during the first half, he should be even better next year, to the offensive levels not seen by any catcher other than Piazza (except unlike Piazza, he's actually decent behind the plate and continually improving).  Factor in the Jason Varitek/ Derek Jeter like leadership, and we are witnessing the early stages of the career of someone who will (assuming he stays healthy) eventually become one of the game's all time greats.

Overall, this is a very special time for our franchise.  One World Series win is special.  Twice in three years is surreal.  We may repeat, or we may very well never see one again.  All I know is I will continue to savior the moment like I have been.

P.S. I am looking for contributors on this blog to help me out.  If interested, just hit me up in the comments section below.